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Vrancea Travel on In fact, real GDP has increased 3.6 percent per year, on average, for this entire time, starting at $12.4 billion (measured in 1990 dollars—all prices have been statistically adjusted to 1990 levels) in 1820 and rising to approximately $7,916 billion (again, in constant 1990 dollars) in 2002. Looking at this upward trend alone, however, one does not see that there were many short-term fluctuations, where the economy would actually contract, and only then increase after some period of time. These short-term fluctuations of real GDP, around the longrun trend, are known as business cycles. To be more precise, a business cycle can be defined in the following way: First, a capitalist economy will experience increasing levels of real GDP. This is known as an expansion, one phase of the business cycle. Vrancea Travel 2016.