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Guelmim Es Semara Travel on In terms of measurement, it is not always clear when a recession or an expansion begins or ends. Since a business cycle is defined as expansion-peak-contraction- trough, whose duration is measured peak to peak (or trough to trough), the determination of peaks (the end of an expansion) and troughs (the end of a contraction) is quite important. We defined a business cycle above as simply the ups and downs of real GDP. Corresponding to this understanding, a recession would be seen as six or more consecutive months of falling real GDP. This is what is used as a rule of thumb by most commentators on the economy. However, a more complicated procedure is used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (the source of the business cycle statistics cited above). In these quasi-official statistics, a recession is a period of significant decline in total output, income, employment, and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year, and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy. Guelmim Es Semara Travel 2016.